How to boost Medicaid enrollment in a pandemic: Kentucky's Cara Stewart has an idea or eight

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Let's zoom in once more on Kentucky, the state that appears to be having the most success enrolling the newly unemployed in Medicaid. From February to July, Medicaid enrollment in the state rose by 14.3%.  That's the sharpest increase in the nation, I believe, in the period of mass job loss triggered by the pandemic. [Update, 9/17: Medicaid enrollment in Kentucky is now up 19.7% since early March.]

That's not an accident. Kentucky has probably been the most proactive state in reaching out to the uninsured and helping them find subsidized coverage if eligible. Yet American standards are low: ignorance about Medicaid and the ACA marketplace is rife throughout the land. Cara Stewart, a longstanding advocate for increased healthcare access in Kentucky, and currently director of policy advocacy at Kentucky Voices for Health, believes the state could be doing more to reach out to the uninsured. We'll get to those ideas shortly. First, some benchmarks.

Where is Medicaid enrollment surging? Notes from a few states

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Last month, the Urban Institute forecast that at 15% unemployment, between 8.2 million and 14.3 million people would enroll in Medicaid, an increase of 11-20%.* While the job rate officially now stands at 13.3%, it would be 3 points higher if those classified as employed but absent from work were counted as unemployed, as BLS says they should be (see pg. 6 here).

I have been tracking Medicaid enrollment in states that have accepted the ACA Medicaid expansion and that report timely monthly data. As of early May, enrollment in Kentucky and Minnesota was the highest I was able to track, having increased about 8% since February.  Nationally, the increase at that point was probably about half that. In both states, enrollment increased by another 2% from May to June.

Below, a few bulletins from states (including MN and KY) showing significant enrollment growth. A 2% jump in a given month seems like a frequent marker that enrollment is getting in gear.

The chief fallout from killing Kynect

Articles about the plans of Kentucky's new Republican governor, Matt Bevin, to junk Kynect, the state's home-grown ACA exchange, and switch to Healthcare.gov don't always make it entirely clearly where the loss or risk lies.

There's the waste of some $290 million in federal grant money used to build Kynect, and  $23 million in one-time expenses that the outgoing Beshear administration estimated it would cost to move to the federal exchange. But since the choice of website does not in itself threaten the Medicaid expansion or change private plan offerings (though it may bump up prices, since HealthCare.gov charges insurers a higher assessment than Kynect has), wherein lies the operational damage?

Obamacare customers "stick with" healthcare.gov

Enrollment in private health plans on healthcare.gov seems to have been very sticky.  For the 37 states using healthcare.gov, the renewal rate for those who were enrolled in plans just prior to the start of open season for 2015 was over 90%..

Last week, Avalere Health published a study of renewal rates that found an average of 79% renewals among existing enrollees in private plans (so-called Qualified Health Plans, or QHPs) on healthcare.gov and 65% on the state exchanges. But Avalere tracked attrition from the end of the first open season, in April 2015, until the end of the second one, in March 2015.  The methodology was simple:

Red state attitudes toward the ACA: like America's, but more so

Update, 4/25:  see next post re the high rate of pre-existing conditions reported by respondents to this poll.

A New York Times/Kaiser Family Foundation poll released yesterday probes perceptions of the Affordable Care Act in four red states, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina. * In all of these states, Obama's approval rating is in the 30s, and the ACA is also deep underwater, with approval/disapproval percentages ranging from 29/62  in Arizona to 38/54 in North Carolina.*

Those overall judgments, stoked by five years of relentless Republican denunciations and a barrage of negative advertising in recent months, are stark.  And yet, the underlying attitudes revealed in the poll's internals are strikingly congruent in key respects to the attitudes toward prospective healthcare reform recorded nationally in a Kaiser poll conducted in December 2008, when approval for a president-elect who had campaigned on a national healthcare overhaul was sky-high. 

In both polls, majorities opposed simply maintaining the pre-ACA status quo -- doing little or nothing to expand coverage in 2008, repealing the ACA today. In both, majorities favored government action to make health insurance available to people who could not get it from their employers. In both, majorities supported expanding Medicaid.  Yet in both, majorities rejected the notion that it was the federal government's responsibility to make affordable healthcare coverage available to all Americans.