Victims of an ACA subsidy cutoff may live mainly in Republican districts -- but will they vote?

At Jonathan Cohn's request, Families USA calculated that two thirds of those who stand to lose their health insurance subsidies if the Supreme Court rules for the plaintiffs in King live in Republican Congressional districts (4.2 million subsidized buyers on healthcare.gov live in Republican districts, vs. 2.1 million in Democratic districts).

Those numbers appear to support the hypothesis that a Supreme Court decision cutting off subsidies to those who obtained their insurance on insurance on the federal exchange, healthcare.gov, may politically damage Republicans, who supported the King plaintiffs' claim that the ACA authorized subsidies to flow only through exchanges "established by a state."  But even if Republican attempts to blame the cutoff on Democrats' poor legislating fail utterly, the demographic profile of those who bought subsidized plans on healthcare.gov may moderate the political fallout somewhat.

The ACA: Good policy, tough politics

Three charts may explain in part why the ACA is working as designed, improving life in America, and hurting Democrats politically.

First, Gallup's latest on the uninsured rate:



Next, an assessment of the redistributive effects of the ACA by Henry Aaron and Gary Burtless (via Bill Gardner) :

There's a turkey being slaughtered behind Daniel Henninger's column

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this chart accompanying Daniel Henninger's reading of Pew's trust in government poll belies his conclusion that the grim numbers bespeak a wholesale rejection of the stimulus and health care reform bills.