A "Manchin trim" for the ARPA subsidy boosts to Obamacare?

Subscribe (free) to xpostfactoid

A high-end haircut for the ARPA subsidies?

It's been reported in the last week or two that Manchin may be open to negotiating a bill that would raise about $1 trillion in new revenue over ten years and devote about half of that to new spending. Yesterday, the Washington Post's Greg Sargent reported that $200 billion of that new spending may be allocated to extending the American Rescue Plan Act's increases in ACA marketplace subsidies (which expire at the end of 2022):

If around $300 billion of that [$500 billion in new spending] went to funding the transition to clean energy, through tax incentives and other means — a key part of BBB that Manchin appears open to — that would leave around $200 billion for expanded ACA subsidies.

Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation, says it’s absolutely possible to fund the vast bulk of extended subsidies with that sum. The cost of extending all of them would be an estimated $220 billion, so getting that down to $200 billion, perhaps by shaving those subsidies for the highest-income people eligible, would be doable.

Welp. I have been assuming that with $500 billion over ten years reportedly on the table, a lot of competing priorities would be in the running. If $200 billion really does get allocated to extending the ARPA subsidies, then no problemo, as Larry Levitt suggests. But all these broad outlines (including the broadest, whether any deal gets done) are very uncertain, and I assume a smaller sum (if any) may be allocated to enhancing a version of the ARPA subsidy boosts. 

Self-employed? That pre-ACA health insurance deduction is still there...

Self-employed and seeking health insurance? Call an accountant.

Everyone who's paying attention knows that shoppers on the ACA exchanges are eligible for premium subsidies if their income is under 400% of the Federal Poverty Level  (FPL) and the benchmark silver plan in their area would cost them more than 9.5% of their income (for young people in states with low premiums, subsidies may fade out somewhere under 300% FPL).

Equally important for those who qualify are additional subsidies to reduce deductibles and maximum yearly out-of-pocket costs. As I pointed out in a prior post, these subsidies have hard break points: they bump up at income levels of $17,235 and $22,980 and phase out at $28,775. Since self-employed "profit from business" is notably malleable, and since retirement contributions come off the Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) used to calculate subsidy eligibility, the low income self-employed are well advised to keep an eye on those break points.

There is in fact a third dip for the low-income self-employed -- and a longstanding major benefit for those with higher incomes. It's the self-employment health insurance deduction. If you're self-employed and buying insurance for yourself and/or your family on the individual market, you can deduct the full cost of the insurance from your MAGI. That is, if your self-employment income exceeds the cost of insurance after various other deductions:

Young, self-employed and seeking health insurance via the ACA exchanges? See an accountant

A good number of Americans who will be shopping for health insurance on the ACA exchanges are self-employed.  A 2007 Commonwealth Fund study found that 34% of buyers on the individual market for health insurance were self-employed (p.3). In 2012, about 15 million Americans were self-employed.

Doubtless many of the younger Americans subject to "rate shock" on the ACA exchanges are self-employed and earning enough to qualify for only small subsidies or none at all. For those who have not learned to max out on allowable deductions to reduce their taxable income -- e.g., everything from paper clips to home office space to computers, auto expenses and retirement fund contributions  -- the ACA adds new incentives -- in some cases powerful ones.

The ACA offers subsidies not only for premiums but for deductibles and maximum out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses. While the premium subsidies shrink at a steady rate per $1000 of income (and fade gradually to zero for a single young person), the break points for deductibles and OOP are sharper.  At some break points, a $1000 difference in reported income can mean a difference of thousands in medical expenses covered in a given year.

Submerged state update: Obamacare's gift of the MAGI

[UPDATE, 10/24/13: Per "Freelancer" comment below, there are multiple definitions of MAGI in the tax code, and in the initial post I used the wrong one. Erroneous info marked below. If you got here by search and are simply looking for info about how to calculate MAGI in the ACA, go to Freelancer's post or to this summary sheet of what income to include/exclude]

[UPDATE 2, 12/23/13: Now that actual plans, prices and subsidies can be viewed, I have a series of posts exploring various income/subsidy scenarios. Last in series here. ]

Covered California, the state entity enthusiastically administering the state's health care exchanges, offers not only posted price estimates for the different plans offered in the exchanges, sorted by age and income, but also a personal cost calculator, in which you punch in the number of people in your household, their ages, and your family income to get an estimate of both the cost of a mid-level silver plan and your subsidy.

One fact worth mulling is that the income on which the subsidy is based is the Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) based on IRS filings. That's a reminder that the premium subsidy is another tax cut (offset in large part by increased taxes on the wealthy, employers, medical device makers and others). The ACA's premium support is one more benefit credited negatively, by lowering the tax bill, the social service mechanism of choice for a tax-averse polity.  Bowing to preferred conservative methods, we've added another subaqueous pillar to the Submerged State.

The "m" in MAGI is important, however, as it modifies the adjusted gross income (AGI) we're all familiar with on our tax forms by adding important deductions back into the total -- e.g., student loan interest, tuition, IRA contributions, and the deduction for half the self-employment tax. The "m" in some measure avoids piling subsidy on subsidy, or augmenting one incentive with another.

The use of MAGI rather than AGI is bad news for the self employed, who I assume make up a large proportion of those who make enough money to qualify for  premium subsidies but who lack access to employer-provided health insurance. But it could be worse.