This week the Kaiser Family Foundation estimated that among 32.3 million non-elderly uninsured U.S. adults, 22%, or 7.1 million, should be eligible for subsidized private plans in the ACA marketplace. HHS estimates a total of 10.5 million uninsured who are eligible for marketplace coverage, almost 80% of whom are subsidy-eligible.*
There were 8.3 million subsidized marketplace enrollees as of June, suggesting a total pool of about 15-16 million who lack access to employer-sponsored or other insurance and are eligible for subsidies. The Congressional Budge Office's most recent forecast is that by 2017, 18 million people will be buying subsidized plans in the marketplace. Allowing for a bit of population growth, why the apparent overshoot?
The answer may lie in expectations about employer response to the ACA. CBO's 2015 projection estimates that employer-sponsored insurance will be down 6 million from the pre-ACA baseline in 2016 (and down 1 million this year).
There were 8.3 million subsidized marketplace enrollees as of June, suggesting a total pool of about 15-16 million who lack access to employer-sponsored or other insurance and are eligible for subsidies. The Congressional Budge Office's most recent forecast is that by 2017, 18 million people will be buying subsidized plans in the marketplace. Allowing for a bit of population growth, why the apparent overshoot?
The answer may lie in expectations about employer response to the ACA. CBO's 2015 projection estimates that employer-sponsored insurance will be down 6 million from the pre-ACA baseline in 2016 (and down 1 million this year).
