Uninsurance goes (slightly) upscale, Kaiser edition

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In September, the annual Census Bureau update on health insurance coverage in the U.S. reported a 0.5% rise  in the uninsured population in 2018 -- an increase of 1.9 million uninsured. I noted at the time:

Affluent uninsured population spikes. Notwithstanding a drop of 2 million  (0.7%) in Medicaid enrollment, the sharpest increases in the uninsured were at high incomes. At 300-399% FPL, the insured rate dropped a full percentage point, from 92.9% to 91.9%, and at over 400% FPL, the rate dropped 0.8%, from 97.3% to 96.6%. Together, these two income groups account for 55% of the population. Particularly striking, the number of uninsured at incomes over 300% FPL increased 23.8% (from 6.631 million in 2017 to 8.215 million in 2018).  The spike in uninsured children at high income levels seems congruent with this drop.

These losses were concentrated in private insurance, down 1.3% percentage points at both income levels. The private insurance losses stem in part from the individual market, where unsubsidized enrollment dropped by 1.8 million in 2018, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation's estimate.  That drop is part of a longer term free-fall, from 9.1 million unsubsidized in the individual market in in the first quarter of  2016  to 4.7 million in Q1 2019, according to Kaiser.

Yesterday, the Kaiser Family Foundation released an updated analysis of the uninsured population. Kaiser finds a smaller increase in the uninsured in 2018 than did the Census, 500,000.  In contrast to the Census, Kaiser finds equal increases in the uninsured at 100-199% of the Federal Poverty Level and at over 200% FPL, with a statistically insignificant decrease at incomes below 100% FPL.  Regarding the increase at not-poor incomes, a couple of points from the analysis stand out: