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CMS announced yesterday that enrollment through December 15 in ACA marketplace plans on HealthCare.gov, the federal exchange serving 33 states, is up 18% year-over year. That’s on top of a 27% year-over-year increase in HealthCare.gov states last year.
Enrollment growth in the pandemic era has been slower in the 18 states (including D.C.) that run their own state-based exchanges (SBEs). Last year, SBE enrollment growth was about 8%, and the all-state total increase (HealthCare.gov + SBEs) was 21%. If the 18% growth rate for HealthCare.gov states holds through the end of the Open Enrollment Period, and the ratio of SBE growth to HealthCare.gov growth matches last year’s, then total enrollment growth as of the end of OEP 2023 will come in at about 13.7%.
That would peg total enrollment as of the end of OEP at about 16.5 million. Charles Gaba, who’s been tracking SBE enrollment tallies as they come in (they lag HealthCare.gov’s), projects a range of 16.4-16.9 million (plus 1.1 million in New York and Minnesota’s Basic Health Programs).
A few notes about this continued strong enrollment growth:
