540,000 fewer people in New Jersey will have health insurance by 2026 under the American Health Care Act (AHCA) than under current law, according to an updated analysis by Raymond Castro of New Jersey Policy Perspective. The update takes into account the May 24 cost estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) of the amended AHCA that passed the House on May 4.
Should the AHCA become law, NJPP forecasts:
Should the AHCA become law, NJPP forecasts:
- The state uninsurance rate would increase by 50%, from 9.8% to 14.7% in 2026.
- The uninsurance rate would double in Rodney Frelinghuysen's Congressional district, and more than double in Tom MacArthur's.
- Almost all of the 562,000 New Jerseyans covered by the ACA Medicaid expansion would lose Medicaid coverage, and about two thirds of them would remain uninsured.
- About one in ten New Jersey adults would lose Medicaid coverage.
- The state would lose $28 billion in federal funding over ten years -- $21 billion in Medicaid funding, and $7 billion in reduced Marketplace subsidies.
- The wealthiest 5 percent of NJ households would receive $13 billion in tax cuts over 10 years.
- About 100,000 New Jerseyans would lose coverage in the individual market through reduction in subsidies for premiums and out-of-pocket costs.
