ACA marketplace enrollment was down 7% in New Jersey as of the end of open enrollment, according to CMS. That's a somewhat steeper drop than the 4% national average and the 5% average among states using HealthCare.gov, but in range.
This week the state Department of Banking and Insurance (DOBI) released first-quarter enrollment results for the entire individual market, off-exchange as well as on-. It shows more severe drops on both fronts -- particularly off-exchange:
New Jersey suffered an average weighted premium increase of 22% in 2018, with steeper increases for market hegemon Horizon Blue Cross. As I noted recently, unsubsidized enrollees didn't get any benefit from silver loading, as there were no discounted silver plans available off-exchange. Unsubsidized enrollees basically had four choices: eat huge premium increases, downshift to bronze, switch to narrow network AmeriHealth, or drop out.
It appears that a significant number of unsubsidized enrollees made that last choice. Off-exchange enrollment was down not only compared to the first quarter of 2017, but compared to the last quarter, when enrollment is at low ebb (overall enrollment is up 6% since Q4 2017, but down 11% since Q1).
Off-exchange enrollment stats are hard to come by, but steep enrollment drops are to be expected. Matt Fiedler of the Brookings Institute estimated last fall that premium hikes averaging 20.5% nationally in 2017 were likely to reduce overall unsubsidized enrollment by 12.3%. New Jersey's numbers would seem in line with that estimate.
A few notes and question marks regarding both off- and on-exchange enrollment:
This week the state Department of Banking and Insurance (DOBI) released first-quarter enrollment results for the entire individual market, off-exchange as well as on-. It shows more severe drops on both fronts -- particularly off-exchange:
New Jersey suffered an average weighted premium increase of 22% in 2018, with steeper increases for market hegemon Horizon Blue Cross. As I noted recently, unsubsidized enrollees didn't get any benefit from silver loading, as there were no discounted silver plans available off-exchange. Unsubsidized enrollees basically had four choices: eat huge premium increases, downshift to bronze, switch to narrow network AmeriHealth, or drop out.
It appears that a significant number of unsubsidized enrollees made that last choice. Off-exchange enrollment was down not only compared to the first quarter of 2017, but compared to the last quarter, when enrollment is at low ebb (overall enrollment is up 6% since Q4 2017, but down 11% since Q1).
Off-exchange enrollment stats are hard to come by, but steep enrollment drops are to be expected. Matt Fiedler of the Brookings Institute estimated last fall that premium hikes averaging 20.5% nationally in 2017 were likely to reduce overall unsubsidized enrollment by 12.3%. New Jersey's numbers would seem in line with that estimate.
A few notes and question marks regarding both off- and on-exchange enrollment:
