Three possible surprise rulings on the Affordable Care Act

Supporters of the Affordable Care Act would regard a Supreme Court ruling that the individual mandate is unconstitutional as a chaos-inducing disaster; a strike-down of the entire law as a catastrophe; and an unconditional upholding as an unlikely consummation devoutly to be wished.  There are, however, more ambiguous possibilities -- each unlikely in itself, but taken together, representing a reasonable chance of not-entirely-awful surprise.  Here are three.

1. Kick the can.  The first question the justices considered in oral argument is whether the constitutionality of the mandate can be challenged before anyone is subject to the mandate, which won't happen until the exchanges open in 2014. The case that they cannot rests on the Anti-Injunction Act, which bars challenges to a tax until the tax has been assessed. Both the government and the plaintiffs argued that the Anti-Injunction Act does not apply in this case; the Court appointed an outside attorney (Richard Long) to argue that it does. The arguments were arcane -- a plain-English summary is available on Scotusblog --  and most observers did not think that the justices seemed to seriously entertain the notion that the AIA applies in this case.

But a punt remains a legally viable option if five justices can't coalesce in a coherent decision to strike all or part of the law. What if, say, two justices want to strike the whole thing, and three want to strike the mandate alone, or in some way reshape it (see below), and they can't agree on instructions to give Congress if they leave a law on the books while destroying or reshaping a part that affects the whole? Mightn't they decide to defer decision until the mandate (and the exchanges) are actually operating?

A catastrophic error: The misrepresentation of the ACA's individual mandate in the Supreme Court

[I am reposting this at intervals.  Justice Kennedy: come in for some cookies and tea?] For those who've noted that, contra the 3/27 oral arguments in the Supreme Court on the constitutionality of the individual mandate in the Affordable Care Act, the ACA does in fact offer various catastrophic coverage options, an index of coverage of this issue, here and elsewhere:

Michael Carvin misrepresented the mandate in oral argument (4/12) 

Attention SG Verrilli and Justices Kennedy, Roberts: A plea for one more pleading (4/29)
Kaiser weighs in: the ACA offers catastrophic coverage to all comers (4/27)
Patient cost-sharing under the Affordable Care Act (Kaiser Family Foundation. 4/27)
Another limiting principle for mandate: states can opt out (4/23)
Jonathan Cohn tells the justices: the ACA has catastrophic coverage options (4/20)
Will the justices make a catastrophic error? (Jonathan Cohn, 4/19)
The ACA offers catastrophic coverage: the AP notices  (4/10)
Supreme Court misunderstanding on health overhaul? (AP's Ricardo Alonso-Salvidar, 4/10)
Marty Lederman concurs: the individual mandate could be trimmed, not killed (4/5)
The bounded, minimalist way to uphold the ACA (Marty Lederman at Balkinization, 4/2)
Go tell the justices: the ACA has a catastrophic coverage option (3/31, updated 4/2)
Was Verrilli just the wrong man for the job? Part I (Ragbatz Tumblr, courtesy of Anon below, 3/28)