Ezra Klein offers an astute political forecast:
...if Republicans leave Obamacare gutted and the political arguments that led to it in ruins, there’s not going to be a constituency for rebuilding it when Democrats win back power.A few thoughts:
Instead, they’ll pass what many of them wanted to pass in the first place: a heavily subsidized buy-in program for Medicare or Medicaid, funded by a tax increase on the rich. A policy like that would fit smoothly through the 51-vote reconciliation process, and it will satisfy an angry party seeking the fastest, most defensible path to restoring the Affordable Care Act’s coverage gains.
1. If a Medicaid income-adjusted buy-in were offered only to nonelderly who lack access to employer-sponsored insurance or other government programs, it shouldn't require more funding than the ACA marketplace. OTOH, if the AHCA has passed, Democrats will need to replace the revenue provided by the ACA taxes Republicans will have repealed (close to $900 billion over ten years, rather than the $600+ billion Klein cites, if you include revenue from the repealed ACA mandates).
2. If a buy-in were subsequently offered to employers -- perhaps starting with small employers -- that buy-in would amount to a voluntary payroll tax.
