Left behind: the uninsured who don't qualify for ACA subsidies

HHS released ACA signup numbers updated through January today. And while much of the news is good -- January exchange signups exceeded pre-launch projections -- one pattern repeated from the December update troubles me a bit.  While most of those who go through the application process and qualify for subsidies are enrolling in plans, those whose income disqualifies them for subsidies are hanging back.

This pattern was evident when signup numbers through December were released a month ago. A headline number was that 79% of those who had enrolled in exchange plans qualified for premium subsidies. However, as Corey Husak, a staff assistant to Senator McCaskill, pointed out to me on Twitter, only about 65% of those who had "applied for coverage in completed applications," not all of whom had enrolled, were eligible either for subsidies or for Medicaid/CHIP. More to the point, of the 5.14 million who had completed applications and were found eligible for marketplace plan enrollment, nearly half, 2.38 million, were not eligible for subsidies, versus 2.76 million who were subsidy-eligible.