In the interview I posted last week with Chris Condeluci, who was counsel to Republicans on the Senate Finance Committee when the ACA was being drafted, I foregrounded the most urgent point at present: ACA proponents have a very short window to deter lightning passage of a repeal-and-delay bill, and at least a handful of Republican senators may be responsive to pressure and balk at repeal with no replacement. Three defections would kill insta-repeal, if Democrats hold together.
I think this possibility has been underplayed. 21 Republican senators are in states that have enacted the Medicaid expansion, and many of those states have slashed their uninsurance rates by 40% or more.
Still, odds are probably that Republicans will go through with a repeal-and-delay, in which they preserve the ACA Medicaid expansion and marketplace subsidies for at least 2-3 years while they allegedly craft a replacement plan.
If that's the case, there's still a high-stakes battle to be fought. Its outline can be discerned in the detailed options menu Condeluci laid out for Republicans (or their aides) racing to draft a repeal bill. Since that interesting material was buried rather deep in the prior post, I've reposted it below.
The sticking point (to my mind) is whether repeal of the taxes that largely fund ACA benefits is delayed along with repeal of the benefits. If not, the Medicaid expansion is probably dead, along with marketplace subsidies that make coverage affordable for lower-income buyers. The negotiations with Democrats over a replacement bill that Condeluci envisions are really only possible if substantial tax revenue is still coming in.
I think this possibility has been underplayed. 21 Republican senators are in states that have enacted the Medicaid expansion, and many of those states have slashed their uninsurance rates by 40% or more.
Still, odds are probably that Republicans will go through with a repeal-and-delay, in which they preserve the ACA Medicaid expansion and marketplace subsidies for at least 2-3 years while they allegedly craft a replacement plan.
If that's the case, there's still a high-stakes battle to be fought. Its outline can be discerned in the detailed options menu Condeluci laid out for Republicans (or their aides) racing to draft a repeal bill. Since that interesting material was buried rather deep in the prior post, I've reposted it below.
The sticking point (to my mind) is whether repeal of the taxes that largely fund ACA benefits is delayed along with repeal of the benefits. If not, the Medicaid expansion is probably dead, along with marketplace subsidies that make coverage affordable for lower-income buyers. The negotiations with Democrats over a replacement bill that Condeluci envisions are really only possible if substantial tax revenue is still coming in.
