Medicaid enrollment likely near 80 million in December

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I am pretty confident that total Medicaid enrollment, which stood at 71.2 million in February 2020 according to CMS's adjusted total, is now in the neighborhood of 80 million.*

CMS's official tally through September shows a 9.4% increase from February. My tally below, based on monthly enrollment reports in 33 states, shows a 9.7% increase from February through September, 11.8% through November, and a likely further 1% increase in December (California will as usual drag the all-state percentage increase down a bit). A 12.4% increase from February through December would suggest 80 million total enrollees -- pretty close to a quarter of the U.S. population.

Enrollment will likely continue to increase as long as the federal emergency triggered by the pandemic remains in effect, as the pause in disenrollments mandated by the Families First Act (for states that want to continue to receive the enhanced federal match, as all have opted to do) will last for the duration. Rain keeps dropping into the lake, but there's very little evaporation.

For more context (including a link to more info about my methodology), see this post.

    Medicaid enrollment in 33 states, February to November/December, 2020

States in blue ink have enacted the ACA Medicaid expansion; states in red ink have note. Wisconsin, which grants eligibility to adults with incomes up to 100% of the Federal Poverty Level (as opposed to to 138% FPL in ACA expansion states), is in purple.

Numbers in green are estimated: Illinois, at a 1% per month increase (reflecting the Aug-Sept. increase as well as the rough national average), and Kentucky, as flat, since after leading the country through October the state recorded a drop in November.

One data note: between my last tally and this one, I stumbled on a monthly report for New York that tallies total Medicaid enrollment, as opposed to just Medicaid managed care (approximately 2/3 of the whole), which I had been relying on previously. As in other states, enrollment in fee-for-service Medicaid grows slowly or not at all, so the rate of increased in the managed care tally is higher. That is doubtless true in Minnesota and Michigan, the remaining states in my sample for which I have only the managed Medicaid report.

Update, 1/26/21: Illinois posted a large increase (3%) in October, enough to boost the national increase by a tenth of a percentage point. The chart is updated.

* I have corrected the estimates here, as I originally in error pegged  CMS's February 2020 total at 72 million. I therefore estimated the December total as "likely" over 80 million, whereas CMS's December total, once finalized will likely hover right around 80 million. We'll find out soon enough.

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