The Covid-19 pandemic has delivered an unprecedented shock to the U.S. economy, though its duration remains to be seen. Of the 21 million unemployed as of the end of May, 15.3 million were on temporary layoff, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of the end of May, the BLS reported an unemployment rate of 13.3%, while acknowledging that the rate would be 3 points higher if those classified as employed but absent from work were counted as unemployed, as they should have been (see pg. 6 here).
How many of the newly unemployed will lose access to health insurance? The Urban Institute and the Kaiser Family Foundation both put out estimates in May. At 15% unemployment, Urban forecast that between 17.7 million and 30.1 million would lose access to employer-sponsored insurance, and that about 29% of these people would become uninsured, the rest (71%) enrolling in Medicaid or the ACA marketplace. Kaiser estimated that the number of people losing access to employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) would be about 87% of total job losses*, and that 79% of those who lost ESI would be eligible for Medicaid or subsidized marketplace insurance. Urban pegged the rise in the uninsured population at 5.2-8.5 million; Kaiser, at about 5.5 million.
What do we know about the impact of job losses on the uninsured rate so far? We do have data. The CDC is reporting results weekly from a Census Bureau "demonstration project," the Household Pulse Survey, a quick-and-dirty web survey introduced with a host of caveats. The Commonwealth Fund, meanwhile, interviewed 2,271 adults about their health insurance status between May 13 and June 2.
How many of the newly unemployed will lose access to health insurance? The Urban Institute and the Kaiser Family Foundation both put out estimates in May. At 15% unemployment, Urban forecast that between 17.7 million and 30.1 million would lose access to employer-sponsored insurance, and that about 29% of these people would become uninsured, the rest (71%) enrolling in Medicaid or the ACA marketplace. Kaiser estimated that the number of people losing access to employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) would be about 87% of total job losses*, and that 79% of those who lost ESI would be eligible for Medicaid or subsidized marketplace insurance. Urban pegged the rise in the uninsured population at 5.2-8.5 million; Kaiser, at about 5.5 million.
What do we know about the impact of job losses on the uninsured rate so far? We do have data. The CDC is reporting results weekly from a Census Bureau "demonstration project," the Household Pulse Survey, a quick-and-dirty web survey introduced with a host of caveats. The Commonwealth Fund, meanwhile, interviewed 2,271 adults about their health insurance status between May 13 and June 2.
