Gallup announced today that the U.S uninsurance rate, as reflected in its daily surveying, fell to its lowest rate yet recorded in the first quarter of 2016, 11.0% for all adults. Gallup has been conducting this survey in partnership with Healthways since 2008.
Just for the hell of it, I'm going to try a few I'm notes from my phone [updated 4/8/16]:
1. While Gallup headlines a drop from Q1 2015 (11.9%) to Q1 2016 (11.0%), a better contrast is probably with Q2 2015 (11.4%). In 2015, open enrollment did not end until the third week in February; this year it was over on Jan. 31. By Q4 of last year Gallup found that the uninsurance rate had ticked up to 11.9%. There will probably be some attrition this year as well -- though perhaps a bit less, as the ACA marketplace this year for the first time recorded no-pays and terminations more or less as they happened during open enrollment.
2. Proportionately, the uninsurance rate has been cut more for people with incomes over $90,000 than for any other group. Since Q4 2013 it's been cut in half, from 5.8% to 2.9%, and much of that drop has occurred since Q2 2015, when it was 3.6%. For lower income groups the drop was more in the neighborhood of 30-35%%, though of course they had much further to fall. For those with incomes under $36,000, Gallup reported an uninsurance rate of 20%, down from 30.7% in Q4 2013, a 35% drop. For those in $36-90,000 range, the reported drop is from 11.7% to 8.2%, down 30%. Uninsurance in that mid-range income group has stayed flat (according to Gallup) since Q2 of last year, while the lower income group has made further progress -- in fact, accounting for all recorded progress among income groups (down from 20.8% to 20.0%).
3. Gallup shows a sharp increase since Q4 2013 in people under age 65 with disability Medicare, the percentage rising from 6.1% to 7.6%. That increase had already occurred by Q2 last year. It seems impossibly high: CBO pegs disability Medicare at 9 million, whereas 7.6% of adults under 65 would be about 15 million. Those with military or veteran's insurance has also reportedly increased markedly, from 4.6% in Q4 2013 to 4.9% in Q2 2015 and 5.2% in Q1 2016.
4. There's also a significant drop in the uninsured rate for those over age 65, from 2.0% to 1.6%. Is that because of the mandate, a drop in Medicare-ineligible noncitizens, or both? Would the surge of baby boomers into Mediare include a lower percentage of those who are ineligible or don't sign up? Or is this just statistical just statistical noise?
Just for the hell of it, I'm going to try a few I'm notes from my phone [updated 4/8/16]:
1. While Gallup headlines a drop from Q1 2015 (11.9%) to Q1 2016 (11.0%), a better contrast is probably with Q2 2015 (11.4%). In 2015, open enrollment did not end until the third week in February; this year it was over on Jan. 31. By Q4 of last year Gallup found that the uninsurance rate had ticked up to 11.9%. There will probably be some attrition this year as well -- though perhaps a bit less, as the ACA marketplace this year for the first time recorded no-pays and terminations more or less as they happened during open enrollment.
2. Proportionately, the uninsurance rate has been cut more for people with incomes over $90,000 than for any other group. Since Q4 2013 it's been cut in half, from 5.8% to 2.9%, and much of that drop has occurred since Q2 2015, when it was 3.6%. For lower income groups the drop was more in the neighborhood of 30-35%%, though of course they had much further to fall. For those with incomes under $36,000, Gallup reported an uninsurance rate of 20%, down from 30.7% in Q4 2013, a 35% drop. For those in $36-90,000 range, the reported drop is from 11.7% to 8.2%, down 30%. Uninsurance in that mid-range income group has stayed flat (according to Gallup) since Q2 of last year, while the lower income group has made further progress -- in fact, accounting for all recorded progress among income groups (down from 20.8% to 20.0%).
3. Gallup shows a sharp increase since Q4 2013 in people under age 65 with disability Medicare, the percentage rising from 6.1% to 7.6%. That increase had already occurred by Q2 last year. It seems impossibly high: CBO pegs disability Medicare at 9 million, whereas 7.6% of adults under 65 would be about 15 million. Those with military or veteran's insurance has also reportedly increased markedly, from 4.6% in Q4 2013 to 4.9% in Q2 2015 and 5.2% in Q1 2016.
4. There's also a significant drop in the uninsured rate for those over age 65, from 2.0% to 1.6%. Is that because of the mandate, a drop in Medicare-ineligible noncitizens, or both? Would the surge of baby boomers into Mediare include a lower percentage of those who are ineligible or don't sign up? Or is this just statistical just statistical noise?
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