At pandemic's peak, Medicaid expansion enrollment is keeping pace

Subscribe to xpostfactoid 

Deep into fall and a resurgent pandemic, Medicaid enrollment growth among those rendered eligible by the ACA expansion (adults with incomes up to 138% FPL, or $1,468/month for an individual) shows no sign of abating. 

In the 18-state sample below, representing about 36% of the "expansion" population in the 37 states (including D.C.) that have have enacted the ACA expansion thus far, enrollment in this category increased 22.1% from February through October. In fourteen states that have reported through November, enrollment is up 24.7% since October. Month-to-month, enrollment increased 2.2% from September to October (18 states) and 2.3% October to November (14 states). 

Pandemic Medicaid Expansion Enrollment in 18 States

February through November

ACA Medicaid expansion enrollment continues to swell as pandemic surges

Subscribe to xpostfactoid 

 As our woes show no sign of abating -- 120,000-plus new Covid-19 cases per day, a million new jobless claims per week -- neither does Medicaid expansion enrollment. This part of the ACA is providing a vital safety net. The sampling below (states that have reported expansion category enrollment through October) indicates that enrollment growth did not slow in October.

How representative is the sample? Well, August growth is about 1 percentage point higher in this sample than in the larger (18-state) sample I posted for that month. California, where Medicaid enrollment has been almost flat in pandemic months, drags down the all-state rate of increase by probably another 2 percentage points. I am pretty confident that expansion-category enrollment growth since February tops 20% nationally. For more about my various assumptions, see this post (and this September update).

Pandemic Medicaid expansion enrollment in 12 states
February thru October 2020

 Idaho increase through August is estimated at a rate comparable to Sept-Oct increase.