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Back in July, a memo by Trump pollster Fabrizio Ward famously forecast that refusing to extend the enhanced ACA premium subsidies established by the American Rescue Plan Act, currently funded only through 2025, would cost Republicans the House of Representatives in 2026. More than 80% of the general public supported extended the enhanced subsidies, Ward claimed. Failing to extend them would increase a generic Republican’s then-current polling deficit among motivated voters in the midterms from -8% to -15%. Extending them would swing the generic ballot to +6% among motivated voters.
Underlying that calculation are the huge premium increases that will hit the 22 million current ACA marketplace enrollees (or their 2026 prospective replacements) if the ARPA enhanced subsidies expire. According to an oft-cited KFF estimate, ARPA subsidy expiration would lead to an average increase of 75%* in premiums paid by marketplace enrollees — an average that rolls together reduced subsidies for those eligible, complete loss of subsidies for enrollees with income above the pre-ARPA income cap on subsidy eligibility, and average base (unsubsidized) premium increases a bit below or a bit above 20% (the higher estimate, by Charles Gaba, is weighted according to plans’ enrollment).
