It's up to you to save the ACA

I have a piece up on healthinsurance.org, arguing that Republicans' ACA insta-repeal train can be derailed, and how-to-ing the basic forms of citizen action by which we can all do our part.

It's mostly the nuts and bolts of how to phone, write, tweet, etc., but here's my closing argument that it's all eminently worth doing:

Any and all Republican senators are worth contacting with a “no repeal without delay” message. Taking away constituents’ existing benefits is not in senators’ job description. Almost none of them want to do it, though they have almost all promised to in some form. Those who have expressed doubts include some of the hardest core conservatives (Cotton, Paul).

Some may stealthily work against a swift repeal even if they’re publicly for it. Some may also work to mitigate the effects if it does pass – for example, by delaying repeal of the taxes along with the benefits. If that happens, the ACA may in effect be “renewed” indefinitely.

Remember – just three Republican senators are needed to kill passage via reconciliation. It’s also possible that the “queasies” will insist that repeal of key features such as taxes that the fund benefits or the individual mandate be delayed along with the premium subsidies and Medicaid expansion – and that the hard-core right wing may then in turn balk, on grounds that the bill is a “repeal” only in name.

By hook or crook, supporters of the law should be able to help Democrats in Congress find a way to preserve the vast improvement the ACA has wrought in millions of Americans’ lives.

Hope you'll take a look.

Cutting off CSR subsidies will hit red state enrollees especially hard

As Republicans gear up to repeal the ACA,  the Kaiser Family Foundation has helpfully broken out how many of the 9.4 million subsidized enrollees in the ACA marketplace (as of March 31) live in each state, and what share of an estimated $32.8 billion to be paid out in premium tax credits this year will be paid out for enrollees in each state.

Greg Sargent, assessing the potential political fallout of cutting off those subsidies, notes:

Some of the states with the highest populations of people getting subsidies are represented by GOP Senators. This includes Florida (more than 1.4 million); Texas (more than 913,000); North Carolina (more than 499,000); Georgia (more than 427,000); and Pennsylvania (more than 321,000). Many other states with GOP senators also have sizable populations getting subsidies.

Today also happens to be the day when a federal appeals court delayed further proceedings in House Republicans' suit to stop the executive branch from funding the Cost Sharing Reduction (CSR) subsidies that reduce out-of-pocket costs for 57% of marketplace enrollees. Since a lower court upheld the suit in May, but stayed any action to cut off the payments, the delay effectively leaves it up to the Trump administration whether to drop the Obama administration's appeal and thus cut off those subsidies, effectively crippling the marketplace instantly* (and disrupting Congressional Republicans' alleged "repeal-and-delay" plans, which would keep the marketplace functioning until a replacement plan is enacted).

It therefore seems appropriate to note that CSR subsidies are particularly prevalent in the 19 states that have refused to enact the ACA's Medicaid expansion -- most of which are Trump country. That's because in those states, a subset of those whom the ACA intended to make eligible for Medicaid, people with incomes between 100% and 138% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL), are instead eligible for subsidized marketplace coverage.   And since they are in the lowest income bracket eligible for subsidized marketplace coverage, they get the highest level of CSR support for the lowest price.

A managed Medicaid bailout for repeal-and-delay Republicans

A week ago I suggested, in a kind of desperate good-Trump fantasy, that if Trump really wanted to fulfill his campaign promise to replace the ACA with "something beautiful," he could replace the ACA marketplace with a managed Medicaid buy-in for anyone who needed it.

Earlier this week, Michael Sparer, Chair of Columbia's Mailman School of Public Health, published in NEJM a somewhat akin proposal that could serve as both a basis for permanent compromise and a stopgap if we end up in "repeal-and-delay" limbo. Rather than creating a "fallback" public option from scratch, as President Obama and others have proposed,

A better idea, I believe, and one that could conceivably lead to a political compromise, is to rely on Medicaid managed-care plans to offer an exchange plan wherever they operate where there would otherwise be only one participating insurer. This strategy could work even if ACA premium subsidies for exchange enrollees were eliminated and replaced by some alternative version of tax credits or rebates.

That too might seem like a pipe dream, in that it requires constructive Republican action to keep people insured, not to mention expanding the Medicaid expansion. But maybe not! Austin Frakt's* reading of the political tea leaves suggests that some kind of stopgap staving off total collapse may become the new normal. Reacting to Senator Lamar Alexander's forecast that Republicans might need six years to forge an alternative that could overcome a filibuster, Frakt writes: