Let's say that you were a supporter of Barack Obama in 2008, now
disillusioned. You credit the main thrust of the liberal brief against
him and discount administration defenses. You believe that the 2009
stimulus was too small and too tax-heavy (and that a decisive leader
could have put through a much more effective package), that the
healthcare reform process took way too long (and that decisive
leadership could have radically foreshortened it), that the President
was eighteen months late in refocusing on jobs and let Republicans set
the agenda, and that he got disastrously rolled in the debt ceiling
deal. Should you then write him off as a failure, a disaster for
Democrats and the country, a man unequal to the challenges of his
historical moment?
No. All presidents err terribly. They err in emphasis, in
tactics, and in overall direction. Theodore Roosevelt said he would be
happy if he made the right decision 55% of the time. You have to weigh
the successes against the failures (and the politically possible
against the ideal) and determine which way the scales tip -- perhaps
slightly. And given Obama's tendency to favor long-term priorities over
short, you might have to wait a year or decade or two before making an
assessment.
In a recent post, I noted that FDR not only tipped the U.S. into a
brutal recession by cutting spending in 1937, as Krugman and others have
been reminding us for years, but reversed course only halfheartedly and
rather ineffectually -- both because of his own ambivalence about
deficit spending and because he had squandered political capital on his
court-packing scheme and a war on conservative Democrats. Moving the
story along: by early 1939, the economy was perking up because the war
machine was starting to crank. Roosevelt gave a memorable State of the Union
address. I it, he implicitly confessed to two major errors over
the previous several years -- though he cast those errors as collective
ones, which they also were.