When it was announced last week that the Illinois ACA exchange will have 306 plans on offer next year, I wondered how much choice was too much. A couple of takeaways: 1) extrapolating from this year, the county with the most plans, Cook, will probably have about 150 plans total, and 50 silver plans, in 2015; and 2) in practice, most people probably choose from the two or three cheapest plan in a given metal level, or in two metal levels. That is, price probably simplifies the choice to a manageable pool for most buyers.
The final 2014 statistics released by HHS on Wednesday for the federal exchange states shed a bit of light on both inferences. First, there's a mention of the highest number of silver plans available in any county this year: 67. That's even more than the most populous county in Illinois' robust market will have in 2015. Some ACA shoppers have already been confronted with a ton of choice (and others with far too little).
Second, among those who chose silver plans, 65 percent chose either the cheapest or the second-cheapest plan at that level -- the latter being the benchmark to which premium subsidies are keyed. 60 percent of those who chose bronze plans chose one of the two cheapest. So I was right that most people narrowed their range of choices dramatically (though a substantial portion did not not).
The final 2014 statistics released by HHS on Wednesday for the federal exchange states shed a bit of light on both inferences. First, there's a mention of the highest number of silver plans available in any county this year: 67. That's even more than the most populous county in Illinois' robust market will have in 2015. Some ACA shoppers have already been confronted with a ton of choice (and others with far too little).
Second, among those who chose silver plans, 65 percent chose either the cheapest or the second-cheapest plan at that level -- the latter being the benchmark to which premium subsidies are keyed. 60 percent of those who chose bronze plans chose one of the two cheapest. So I was right that most people narrowed their range of choices dramatically (though a substantial portion did not not).
