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Update, 10/4: see this post for 32-state enrollment through August (California included).
Update, 9/27: I'd like to venture a top-line estimate for Medicaid enrollment through August. In the 25 states I can track through August (I've added Mississippi), enrollment is up 10.5% Aug-Feb. In tracking through July, California's near-flat enrollment drops total growth Feb-July by 1.9% percentage points. Assuming continued weak growth in CA in August, let's assume 8.6% enrollment growth since February. According to CMS's February tally, that would peg total enrollment through August at 77,293,798 -- call it 77.3 million, up about 6 million from February. (Preliminary August numbers for California are in, and they show a drop, which will probably be adjusted up to a very modest increase, based on recent history.)
Of course, enrollment growth in the twenty states not tracked below could be different from the that of the tracked states. It's just occurred to me that I can tally the growth in those states through May, the last month tallied by CMS, and compare it to growth through May in the states tracked below. Then again, growth in many states surged after May -- but by definition this near-real-time tracking is tentative. Stay tuned. [Update: increase through May for the 20 states not included in my July chart is essentially identical to the 50-state increase excluding California -- 3.6% vs 3.7%. As of May, California pulled down the national average to 3.2%, from 3.7% excluding California. That's a 13.5% decrease in the increase, to put it awkwardly. Shaving the same percentage off the 10.5% August increase recorded for 25 states below suggests a 9.1% national increase since February and a national total upwards of 77.6 million enrolled in Medicaid.
Update, 9/22: California wrecks the average for July. Minus California, states below are up 8.8% through July; CA knocks that down to 6.9%. California has also posted a raw total for August that's below July's, but that total will doubtless be adjusted up, as July's has been. Also, South Dakota is up 1.3% July to August.
The California monthly totals below were supplied by the state Dept. of Health Care Services. Raw totals recorded in two public state databases (1, 2) are slightly different from these totals. California deems the data preliminary for a full 12 months, and the state's monthly totals have changed considerably in the period in which I've been tracking. Growth remains surprisingly low, however.
Earlier updates at bottom.
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Update, 10/4: see this post for 32-state enrollment through August (California included).
Update, 9/27: I'd like to venture a top-line estimate for Medicaid enrollment through August. In the 25 states I can track through August (I've added Mississippi), enrollment is up 10.5% Aug-Feb. In tracking through July, California's near-flat enrollment drops total growth Feb-July by 1.9% percentage points. Assuming continued weak growth in CA in August, let's assume 8.6% enrollment growth since February. According to CMS's February tally, that would peg total enrollment through August at 77,293,798 -- call it 77.3 million, up about 6 million from February. (Preliminary August numbers for California are in, and they show a drop, which will probably be adjusted up to a very modest increase, based on recent history.)
Of course, enrollment growth in the twenty states not tracked below could be different from the that of the tracked states. It's just occurred to me that I can tally the growth in those states through May, the last month tallied by CMS, and compare it to growth through May in the states tracked below. Then again, growth in many states surged after May -- but by definition this near-real-time tracking is tentative. Stay tuned. [Update: increase through May for the 20 states not included in my July chart is essentially identical to the 50-state increase excluding California -- 3.6% vs 3.7%. As of May, California pulled down the national average to 3.2%, from 3.7% excluding California. That's a 13.5% decrease in the increase, to put it awkwardly. Shaving the same percentage off the 10.5% August increase recorded for 25 states below suggests a 9.1% national increase since February and a national total upwards of 77.6 million enrolled in Medicaid.
Update, 9/22: California wrecks the average for July. Minus California, states below are up 8.8% through July; CA knocks that down to 6.9%. California has also posted a raw total for August that's below July's, but that total will doubtless be adjusted up, as July's has been. Also, South Dakota is up 1.3% July to August.
The California monthly totals below were supplied by the state Dept. of Health Care Services. Raw totals recorded in two public state databases (1, 2) are slightly different from these totals. California deems the data preliminary for a full 12 months, and the state's monthly totals have changed considerably in the period in which I've been tracking. Growth remains surprisingly low, however.
Earlier updates at bottom.
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Original post: (9/2/20): A handful of states have posted Medicaid enrollment totals as of the end August (or, in the case of New York, as of mid-August or beyond*). The main takeaway is that growth in Medicaid enrollment triggered by the pandemic does not appear to be slowing down. In the states charted below, enrollment grew by 1.5% from June to July. In the four states that have reported through all or most of August below, enrollment also increased 1.5% over the prior month. [Update 9/4: Minnesota up 1.2%; 5 states up 1.4% July-August.]
The sustained Medicaid enrollment growth five months after the first pandemic-induced lockdowns should not be a surprise. As I've noted before, Medicaid enrollment is a lagging indicator. A United Hospital Fund study found that in the Great Recession of 2007-2009, Medicaid enrollment in New York peaked seven months after unemployment peaked. Robin Rudowitz of the Kaiser Family Foundation tells me that Medicaid enrollment continued to climb nationwide after the Great Recession officially ended, and that state Medicaid directors whom Kaiser surveyed at the end of April anticipated increases extending throughout the year.
Pandemic Medicaid Enrollment in 31 States (updated 9/30)
February through July or August 2020
Expansion states in blue; nonexpansion states in red; Medicaid to 100% FPL in purple
Totals as of the end of each month
The sustained Medicaid enrollment growth five months after the first pandemic-induced lockdowns should not be a surprise. As I've noted before, Medicaid enrollment is a lagging indicator. A United Hospital Fund study found that in the Great Recession of 2007-2009, Medicaid enrollment in New York peaked seven months after unemployment peaked. Robin Rudowitz of the Kaiser Family Foundation tells me that Medicaid enrollment continued to climb nationwide after the Great Recession officially ended, and that state Medicaid directors whom Kaiser surveyed at the end of April anticipated increases extending throughout the year.
Pandemic Medicaid Enrollment in 31 States (updated 9/30)
February through July or August 2020
Expansion states in blue; nonexpansion states in red; Medicaid to 100% FPL in purple
Totals as of the end of each month
